Renowned investor Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has analyzed the US earnings estimates and made four stock market forecasts. Of the 4, one predicts significant losses, another a flat performance and two of them double-digit increases. Ed Yardeni’s 2018 earnings per share estimate is $155.00 (an increase of 17.4% year-over-year). Analysts continue to raise their estimates and are now forecasting $160.40 (up 21.5%). “My estimate for 2019 is $166.00 (up 7.1%). Analysts’ was $175.72 (up 9.6%). Maybe the analysts are being too optimistic,” says Yardeni.
They may be right about 2018, especially since they have simply improved their views based on the results reported so far during the results season. At the same time in trading online, they have been conservative in the remaining quarters of this year. Your growth estimate for next year seems to me to be too high, as I expect the 2019 earnings growth to return to the historical trend of 7%.